4.5% Returns from the Stock Market? Time to Look Elsewhere

By Brian Eller, on Thursday, February 26, 2026

Well folks, it’s a “good news, bad news” situation.

The bad news? A new report from Vanguard says stocks will deliver annual returns of just 4.5% over the next decade. At that rate, it would take sixteen years to double your money. Yikes.

But now the good news: If you’re looking to make returns that can crush the stock market — I’m talking 10x your money and then some — I’ve got you covered.

The Party’s Over

First, let’s dive into the “bad news.”

According to Vanguard’s 2026 Outlook, and as shown in the red box below, U.S. stocks are projected to return just four to five percent per year over the next ten years.

At first blush, that might seem unthinkable. After all, for the past ten years (2016-2025), the S&P 500 delivered average annual returns of more than 16%, including four years when returns were north of 20%.

But now we can only expect to earn 4% or 5%? Once you factor in inflation, that means real returns will be close to zero.

What’s going on here?

Why the Market’s in Trouble

For starters, there’s a growing consensus that U.S. tech stocks — the ones that have been leading the charge in recent years — may be headed for a slowdown.

Furthermore, there’s troubling signs from the “Buffett Indicator,” which tracks the ratio of the stock market’s value to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Essentially, investing legend Warren Buffett believed that, when the stock market is valued significantly higher than the country’s GDP, it indicates the market is overvalued.

Any ratio above 200% is considered “playing with fire.” Right now, the Buffett Indicator sits at about 224%, meaning the market could be due for a major correction.

So if stocks aren’t poised to deliver the types of returns we’re after, where can we turn?

Traditionally, when investors are worried about stocks, they shift to bonds. But ever since 2022, driven by high inflation and rising interest rates, stocks and bonds have shown a strong positive correlation. That means they move in tandem rather than providing diversification.

Where can you turn if you’re looking to diversify — and you’re looking to earn market-crushing returns?

Here’s Where to Turn

If you’re a regular reader of Crowdability, you know that, historically, startup investing has crushed the stock market.

According to Cambridge Associates, a financial advisor whose clients include the Rockefeller Family and the Bill Gates Foundation, over the last twenty-five years, early-stage startups have produced average annual returns of 58% — including the winners and the losers.

That’s not a typo. 58%. That’s nearly 13x more than the projected 4.5% returns from the stock market. And at 58%, instead of doubling your money every sixteen years, you’d double it about every fourteen months.

Of course, not every deal is winner. But on average, startup investing has trounced the public markets. And the winners can deliver mind-blowing returns.

Let me show you what I mean…

Enough to Turn $1,000 into $5 Million

You might have heard about the life-changing returns from early investments in Facebook, Uber, and Airbnb — deals that helped investors pocket 400x, 2,000x, even 5,000x their money. Keep in mind: a 5,000x gain is enough to turn $1,000 into $5 million.

But how about real-world results from real-world investors like you?

Here’s a tiny sample of the winners that Crowdability has introduced readers to:

Striking Gold at Crowdability

  1. Beta Bionics (BBNX) is a med-tech company. It’s developed a “bionic pancreas” to treat diabetes. Crowdability readers have already made peak gains of 10x their money.
  2. OurBond is a personal-security company. It just went public a few weeks ago (OBAI). In a little more than a year, our readers are already sitting on peak gains of 6.5x their money.
  3. Cruise Automation, which builds software for self-driving cars, was acquired by GM for $1 billion. In about one year, any of our readers who invested landed a 10-bagger.

Our readers are also sitting on multi-baggers from Liquid Piston, 20/20 BioLabs, CNS Pharmaceuticals, InnaMed, Oracle Health, Atom Limbs, Smart Tire, Rentberry, Avadain, RAD AI, and many others.

To be clear — every one of these startups was featured in Crowdability. And that’s the key…

We’re Here to Help You Make Money

Our mission at Crowdability is to introduce you to winning startup opportunities like these.

Whether it’s through our free Deals service, which uses proprietary software to gather interesting deals for your review…

Or through our premium recommendation service Private Market Profits, where you’ll receive one hand-picked recommendation each month — a startup that has the potential to deliver at least 10x your money, and often far more.

As you learned today, the stock market may not be a good place to make money right now. Crowdability is here to point you in a better direction.

To start investing, click any of the links above, or give us a call at 844-311-3191.

Happy investing!

Best Regards,


Editor
Crowdability.com

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Tags: Stocks Vanguard

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